George's Market Notes

October 24, 2023

     The stock market started the year off with a bang before beginning to cool off in July. Yahoo Finance shows the S&P 500 Index starting the year at 3,840, reaching 4,450 on June 30, +15.89%.          Closing at 4,369 on 0/12/23, the S&P slid 1.82%. With the Fed not expected to raise rates at their October 31 meeting, the stock market might react favorably in November and December.  

  • Fed funds rate seems to have reached an apex at 5.25 – 5.50%. If that turns out to be the case, bonds and stocks may perform well for a period.
  • The possibility of recession is still there, but apparently, it has not started yet. A soft landing might mean no recession.
  • Despite predictions to the contrary, consumer spending has not cooled off yet though LPL suggests that rising bankruptcies may be a harbinger of decreasing consumer spending in their 10/5/23 Daily Market Update.
  • Many analysts suggested that there would be modest stock market gains for the second half of 2023. The first 3 months of the second half was a small negative. We shall see if things pick up in October, November, and December.
  • The job market remains hot; the Fed’s inflation busting program seems to not have affected labor demand, which remains less than supply.  

  • The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.

    Investing involves risk including loss of principal.  No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

    The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.